Death Spiral Averted: Bay Area Transit Taxes RTM and Proposition H Declare Victory
Supporters of Bay Area public transit cheered election returns on Tuesday that showed two tax measures designed to head off drastic cuts in bus and train service passing easily.
Initial results from five Bay Area counties showed Measure RTM, a 14-year regional sales tax, well on the way to passage with a 61.6% yes vote.
Jeff Cretan, spokesman for the Connect Bay Area coalition that campaigned for the tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, called the apparent margin of victory “incredible.”
“This is a huge win for public transit,” Cretan said. “ I think these results show that people believe in the importance of our buses and trains running to get people to work, to get seniors to appointments and to get kids to school. All of that matters for the Bay Area to really thrive.”
San Francisco’s Proposition H, a separate parcel tax measure targeted at funding only the city’s Muni transit service — also appeared certain to pass with a 72.5% yes vote.
Measure RTM imposes a 0.5% sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties and a 1% sales tax in San Francisco to generate about $1 billion a year to maintain current levels of service at BART, Muni, AC Transit, Caltrain and other transit agencies. The sales taxes will also pay for fare discounts, accessibility and wayfinding programs.
Proposition H is a San Francisco-specific measure that will tax property owners at different rates based on property type and size in order to generate an estimated $184 million annually for the city’s Muni transit service for 15 years.
San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie hailed the result as a sign of the city’s long-term commitment to public transportation.
“From small businesses to transit advocates to every elected official and labor union, everyone agrees that saving Muni is critical to saving San Francisco,” Lurie said at an election night watch party.
BART General Manager Bob Powers said at an election night party in San Francisco’s SoMa neighborhood that transit agencies had won voters over by demonstrating they can respond to riders’ needs and deliver improved service.
“The last 30 months or so, every decision I’ve made is to try to improve the rider experience, and some of them were difficult decisions,” Powers said. He mentioned BART’s new fare gates and the agency’s improved on-time performance as two major customer-focused improvements.
Laura Tolkoff, transportation policy director at SPUR, the San Francisco-based research and policy think tank, appeared stunned as the regional measure built a big early lead.
“I kind of can’t believe it,” Tolkoff said, adding that the result came as a relief.
“There’s been, you know, preparing yourself for possibly a different outcome,” she said. The imminent fiscal crisis for transit operators “was going to affect people in just a few months if this didn’t pass. It’s amazing that we can see that what we have is worth protecting and building on.”
The campaign opposed to RTM — the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit — did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday night.
In the lead-up to Election Day, the committee argued that transit agencies exaggerated potential service cuts to scare voters into approving the tax and said the regional measure lacked accountability guarantees.
The committee framed opposing the tax as a crucial chance to send a message to the region’s transit agencies that they need to institute major financial reforms.
“ They’re promising oversight that is not really there. They’re saying they need money that they don’t really need right now,” said Gregg Dieguez, president of the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit before Tuesday’s vote. “They need real reform, and the reforms they’re promising are toothless and minuscule.”
Opponents of Proposition H said the passage of the tax was also a missed opportunity to rein in a fiscally irresponsible transit agency.
“Mayor Lurie ran on accountability, and this measure has zero accountability. Voters are getting fooled. SFMTA will use Prop. H money to treat the agency like a venture capital business, hire fast, grow fast but with zero goals,” said Marie Hurabiell, executive director of ConnectedSF.
Hurabiell claimed the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency could have made budget cuts without impacting service.
The coalition that backed the measures included business groups, labor unions and environmental and transit justice advocates. Those supporters joined with the transit agencies themselves to warn that failure to pass the taxes would result in major service cuts.
Some of the proposed cuts included: BART closing up to 15 stations and ending service at 9 p.m., Caltrain closing one-third of its stations and eliminating weekend service and AC Transit reducing service by 16% and laying off up to 300 employees.
If both measures had failed, Muni warned it could cut up to 20 bus routes, double the wait times on other routes, reduce late night service to 9 p.m. and eliminate cable car and historic streetcar service..
The major public transit agencies are suffering a deep and lingering fiscal hangover from the collapse of ridership and fare revenue triggered nearly seven years ago at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Public transit operators used billions of dollars of emergency federal aid, as well as state assistance, to maintain service levels at slightly below pre-pandemic levels.
“The business community has invested significant resources to ensure that [RTM] is successful because they know our economy depends on our ability to get people to and from work,” said Emily Loper, senior vice president of public policy at the Bay Area Council, which represents some of the largest employers in the region.
Under SB 63, the state law that authorized the RTM ballot measure, transit agencies must now undergo a financial efficiency review to identify cost-saving measures. Money from the taxes will begin flowing to the agencies next year.