Newsom Recall: What California's GOP Stands to Win (Even if They Lose)

When Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers his State of the State speech from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles tonight, he may or may not mention the campaign to recall him from office. But with recall backers saying they've collected enough signatures to place it on the ballot, the campaign to remove Newsom will certainly be the backdrop.

At least two relatively high-profile Republicans — former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and San Diego businessman John Cox (who was crushed by Newsom in 2018) — have endorsed the recall and are running to replace him.

But whether or not the recall ultimately succeeds, the California Republican Party is hoping to benefit from it.

Michele Guerra, chair of the Solano County Republican Party, helped organize a recall rally last weekend in Vacaville, where volunteers waved American flags in front of City Hall as passersby in cars honked their horns in support.

In addition to corralling people to sign recall petitions, Guerra is making sure their voter information is up to date.

"We ask how long has it been since you've updated your registration and your signature? Because that is one way that the ballot gets kicked out, if your signature isn't correct. Have you updated your information?" Guerra said. "It's really important for Republicans to be out here and helping people see that they have a voice."

Among those who stopped to sign the petition this past weekend was David Verza, 32, a Republican who says the recall for him is personal.

"My friend group, family group, we're having a hard time here. And it just feels like Newsom isn't helping us out at all. It feels like he doesn't care," Verza said. "You know, when we see him eat in restaurants and doing stuff like that, it really shows where his loyalties lie."

A week from tomorrow is the deadline for signatures, and recall organizers say they already have nearly 2 million — more than enough, assuming they’re all valid. Just shy of 1.5 million valid signatures — 12% of the total votes cast in the previous gubernatorial election — are needed to qualify for the ballot, per state election rules.

Jessica Millan Patterson, chair of the California Republican Party, says the recall didn’t start out as a purely Republican effort, but the party's all in now.

"We saw that there was a movement there and we joined on to it because it's the right thing to do for Californians," she said.

Patterson says the recall is a chance to showcase the GOP as an alternative to Democratic policies they don’t like, from the pandemic shutdown to taxes and immigration.

"We have an opportunity to right the ship here and we can do that through this recall. And we don't have to wait until 2022 to do it," Patterson said.

It’s also a way to keep volunteers engaged in what was supposed to be a relatively quiet political year, Patterson says.

"We've done about a million phone calls," she said. "So keeping the volunteers engaged in a quote unquote off year is phenomenal."

With the help of $250,000 from the Republican National Committee toward the recall effort, it looks like money won’t be a problem for the campaign if it qualifies for the ballot.

Randy Economy, official spokesman for the recall campaign, is a former Democrat turned independent turned Republican — and he insists the effort is nonpartisan.

"I know that the Republican Party structure has decided to get involved in the campaign. Of course they are. We couldn't stop them from doing that," Economy said. "Everybody has the right to get involved. But our campaign is not based upon, you know, the wishes of the Republican Party or its Republican Party operatives."

At the same time, Economy acknowledges, "some of our greatest volunteers are, you know, chairmen of individual county Republican parties up in Nevada County or El Dorado County or Alameda and Orange County."

If nothing else, says Anne Dunsmore, a consultant for the recall campaign, the effort to get rid of Newsom puts Democrats on the defensive while giving the GOP an opportunity to reach voters who might not otherwise be receptive to the party's message.

"They're certainly using it as an organizing tool. It's certainly catching fire," she said. "And every day you can see it because all the county parties are starting to surf that wave."

Republican consultant Rob Stutzman, who worked on the successful 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis, said the current effort gives Republicans a chance to talk about how they would govern the state differently from Democrats.

"And as long as Trump-related candidates stay out of it, they're not talking about Donald Trump. So it's a very good opportunity for the party to frankly grow beyond its current base," he said.

Patterson, the state GOP chair, said the party is looking ahead to next year, when it will be defending five newly minted Republican House seats in California. She sees the recall as key to raising money, volunteers and visibility in competitive congressional districts.

"And so we have a huge opportunity, depending on how redistricting goes, to be a major player in taking back the House, building the infrastructure and having that in place before we get into 2022. I think it's going to be critical to wins," Patterson said.

Meanwhile, Newsom is hoping that if the recall election does happen later this year, the pandemic by that time will be in the rearview mirror and voters will be in no mood to replace him with a Republican.