In this edition of The Bay’s monthly news roundup, we get a status update on the San Francisco mayoral race. Later, we dive into the ongoing hotel worker strike in San Francisco and discuss why the oil industry is getting involved in a local election in a city with no refineries.
Links:
- KQED Voter Guide
- Prop Fest 2024
- Oil Industry Spends Thousands on Local Bay Area Election in City With No Refineries
- New Polls in San Francisco Mayor’s Race Show Peskin and Lurie Surging
- SF Hotel Worker Strike Enters 6th Week, No Deal in Sight
- Apply to be our intern
This is a computer-generated transcript. While our team has reviewed it, there may be errors.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:00:32] Welcome to The Bay’s October edition of our monthly news roundup. There are only so many stories that we get to do each week, so we spend this time talking about some of the other stories that we have been following this month. I am joined by our producer, Jessica Kariisa. This is her very first news roundup with us. What’s up, Jessica?
Jessica Kariisa [00:00:59] Hi, Ericka. Happy to be here.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:01:01] And senior editor, Alan Montecillo. Hey, Alan.
Alan Montecillo [00:01:04] Hello. It’s me, back again.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:01:07] And it’s kind of crazy, but election week is less than a week away. And I feel like even though I try to avoid talking about the election in some of my social spaces, it just keeps coming up. How are you all feeling?
Jessica Kariisa [00:01:26] Not exactly sure how to feel. Lots of feelings. You know, I think there’s like two levels of it. There’s like me as a journalist who’s, like, excited to find out what happens, and then there’s me as a regular person who is very nervous to find out what happens. And so, yeah, just a mix of feelings.
Alan Montecillo [00:01:46] When I’m thinking about what Tuesday night could be like and the days and weeks after, I feel a considerable amount of anxiety regarding what will happen on the presidential level and frankly, whether there will be political violence egged on by or even committed by supporters of former President Donald Trump. It’s this weird mix because there’s a lot of work to do that’s not directly related to the presidential race. I mean, we’re a local podcast, you know, we’re not in a swing state. But there’s this sort of overhanging sort of cloud and like, what is the cloud? Is it like a storm? Is it a hurricane? I don’t know how far you want to take this analogy. I don’t know. We’ve also got a job to do and these elections on the state and local level are also very important.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:02:30] Yeah. Yeah. And I feel like a lot of us in the newsroom sort of see Election Day as sort of a goal post. Like if we could just get to that day, we will make it through. But it really does feel like just the start of whatever happens next in many ways. I mean, have you all voted yet?
Jessica Kariisa [00:02:51] I have voted. I dropped in my mail-in ballot at the library a couple of days ago. My partner is a first-time voter and he is not yet registered. But he will, I think, vote like in the last sort of stretch of the voting.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:03:07] Alan, have you voted?
Alan Montecillo [00:03:08] I filled up my ballot the day I got it in the mail and then it’s been sitting on my desk ever since. So I guess I haven’t voted yet. I should probably grab that and drop it off at the library at some point.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:03:20] Well, if you are like me and have not filled out your ballot yet and maybe need help doing so, make sure to check out Prop Fest. Just going to plug that right here. It’s a collaboration between The Bay and Bay Curious podcasts where we break down each of the ten statewide ballot propositions. It’s super helpful and we’ve gotten a lot of really great feedback. You can find that at kqed.org/prop fest. And while you’re at it, bookmark KQED’s very comprehensive voter guide, kqed.org/voterguide. And speaking of the election, let’s get into the stories that we brought today, starting with you, Alan and an update on the mayor’s race in San Francisco.
Alan Montecillo [00:04:10] Well, with six days left to vote, after a long, bruising campaign, after millions and millions of dollars spent, the frontrunner for the race for mayor of San Francisco is… nobody. It’s still a tossup. It’s really never been dominated by any one candidate this whole time. There have been some interesting shifts in the polls recently and in some campaign spending. But really, I think there’s still a path for any one of the top four major candidates to win this thing.
Jessica Kariisa [00:04:39] Yeah. Can you tell us a little bit more about some of that polling? I mean, I feel like I’m getting a little bit of whiplash. One second, I’m seeing Lurie’s ahead and then I’m seeing Peskin ahead. And then I’m seeing actually, if you count ranked choice voting, someone else might be a front runner. Like do we have a sense at all of who might be edging forward?
Alan Montecillo [00:04:58] Yes. So just to recap, there are four major candidates here. The incumbent mayor, London Breed, the Levi Strauss, heir and CEO of the nonprofit Tipping Point, Daniel Lurie, former supervisor and interim mayor Mark Farrell, and Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin. Now, we’ve done plenty of episodes on their policy positions. You can go back and listen to those, but generally Breed, Lurie, and Farrell are sort of understood to be on the sort of moderate end of the political spectrum, while Aaron Peskin comes from the city’s traditionally progressive camp.
So generally what you’re seeing is polls showing that Daniel Lurie is rising in the polls and Aaron Peskin, too, I might add. One San Francisco Chronicle poll a couple of weeks back had London Breed with 24% of first place votes. But what’s interesting about that poll is it also accounted for first, second, third and fourth choices. And once you tabulate those, Daniel Lurie comes out ahead and wins over London Breed. Now, Lurie is the only one of the major candidates who does not have political experience. He’s also been pouring in a tremendous amount of money into this race. He’s actually donated more than $8 million of his own money, plus $1 million from his from his mother, Mimi Haas.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:06:16] And just to remind folks, Alan, you are talking about the role that ranked choice voting plays in San Francisco. Can you remind people who aren’t familiar with ranked choice voting basically what’s happening here?
Alan Montecillo [00:06:31] Sure. And, you know, not every city in the Bay Area has this. But basically, instead of just voting for one candidate, you can rank your candidates in order of preference. So when I got my ballot in the mail, the mayoral section was actually this huge grid where I could fill in bubbles for rank one, rank two, rank three, actually all the way to rank ten. If one candidate gets a majority of all first place votes, then they just win the election, right? I think it’s fair to say no candidate is going to win an outright majority. What that means is that who voters put as their second or even third choice matters a lot. And that’s where you see a real pathway for for any one of these candidates really to pull ahead and win.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:07:12] Okay. So it looks like we’re seeing a possible path to victory for Daniel Lurie, possibly even Aaron Peskin. But what about Mark Farrell and London Breed?
Alan Montecillo [00:07:25] Both of them definitely still have a shot at winning this. I’m by no means saying that that Lurie and Peskin are the most likely winners of the mayor’s race. London Breed is still the incumbent. Voters are more likely to know who she is just because she’s the incumbent. And Mark Farrell has been at the top of many polls leading up to this past month or so. Some of the changes in polling where you’ve seen Laurie and Peskin rise, I think you could attribute to a lot of attack ads against Breed and Farrell, but also some real missteps and even scandals among both of them. Questions about how Mark Farrell has been handling his campaign finances and then for London Breed, I mean, in addition to just being the mayor so when things feel like they’re not going well, they get put on the mayor, you know, there have been sort of conflict of interest and misspending allegations for one of her major programs called the Dream Keeper Initiative. So it’s possible that these stories and attack ads that spring from these stories have had a major impact on both of these candidates, but they both still have a real chance of winning for sure.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:08:26] I mean, Alan, you’re a voter in San Francisco. What does it look like around town where you live lately? What are your YouTube ads looking like?
Alan Montecillo [00:08:37] There are so many ads and certainly there have been signs around the neighborhood where I live for quite a while. But it does feel to me like it’s ramping up. Not just mailers, but on basically every streaming app. You know, I’m just trying to watch Veep, but then I get a radio ad.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:08:53] (Laughs) Why are you watching Veep right now?
Jessica Kariisa [00:08:55] I think we’re all watching Veep right now (laughs).
Alan Montecillo [00:09:01] Many, many text messages. In fact, I don’t know if you get those political text messages that say at the end, reply stop to opt out. And in my message history, it’s just me going, “stop, stop, stop, stop.”
Jessica Kariisa [00:09:12] And they never stop coming!
Alan Montecillo [00:09:13] There’s so many of them. But but what’s interesting, too, is, is the substance of them. What I’m seeing, and this is again, anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt, is an uptick in ads attacking Daniel Lurie, saying Lurie doesn’t have enough experience. He’s just a trust fund baby. He hasn’t had a real job. How can you trust this guy? I actually got one with Daniel Lurie where he’s wearing a suit that’s too big for him, you know, kind of implying that he’s like three kids in a trenchcoat or something. So I’m seeing a lot of ads.
[00:09:47] The other thing I will say is that there’s also been concern from moderate donors about Aaron Peskin because Peskin, being the lone candidate from the progressive camp, has also been rising in the polls. You know, in some of these more recent polls, Peskin is polling second or even first for many moderate groups like Grow S.F,. Together, S.F., you know, that have a lot of tech money behind them. Many of them either endorse, you know, Breed Lurie or Farrell or all three. What they all agree on is keep Aaron Peskin out of the mayor’s office. And so we’re seeing an uptick and a push from donors there because they sense and fear that, you know, this thing being a toss up, all of this infighting from moderate candidates could actually propel Aaron Peskin to the mayor’s office.
[00:10:32] I think another reason this is a tossup is that one other category that polls very high is undecided. A lot of people aren’t following the mayor’s race all year. In fact, most people aren’t following the mayor’s race all year. People are inundated with ads or maybe they’re just getting acquainted for the first time. Maybe some people don’t like all of their options. Maybe they feel overwhelmed by all of their options. So that’s another reason why I mean, I could not predict what’s going to happen in the mayor’s race. It really could go any which way.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:11:03] Well, Alan, thank you so much for updating us on the status of the mayoral race in San Francisco. Definitely going to be one we will continue to watch on the show.
Alan Montecillo [00:11:14] Thank you.
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Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:11:37] And welcome back to The Bay’s October News Roundup where me and The Bay team talk about some of the other stories that we’ve been following this month. Let’s get right back into it with producer Jessica Kariisa. What have you been following this month?
Jessica Kariisa [00:11:50] Yeah, so around 2000 San Francisco hotel workers have been on strike and the strike actually just entered its sixth week. It’s pretty crazy because most strikes only last about a week. So for these people to be on strike this long, it’s a pretty big deal. And very recently, even more people joined the strike. I think about 400 hotel workers from the Palace Hotel, which is a very iconic hotel in the city. It’s part of a nationwide strike that’s been going on also for a little while now that includes over 4000 hotel workers.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:12:25] Yeah, I take the bus through downtown Market Street to get to work, and every now and then I see a strike going on outside. Why are so many hotel workers on strike right now, Jessica?
Jessica Kariisa [00:12:39] Basically, during the pandemic, as you can imagine, people were not traveling. They were not going to hotels. And as a result of that financial loss, hotels cut staff, but they haven’t actually recovered that staff even as hotel traffic has gone back up. And so that’s led to, according to the Unite Here union, which covers these hospitality workers, that’s led to higher workloads. That’s led to, you know, less opportunities even for work. You know, things like automatic daily housecleaning have been like either eliminated or become optional for guests, which has limited the hours that people are working. And they also say that their wages just haven’t really matched up to the rising cost of living. So it’s all this big sort of stew that is still the effects of the pandemic.
Alan Montecillo [00:13:30] So what are their demands specifically? And is there one big contract that is being negotiated among all these workers across states? Or how does this work?
Jessica Kariisa [00:13:41] The union has different contracts with different hotels. So the hotels where people are striking include the Hilton, the Hyatt and the Marriott Hotels. So all across the nation, they all had different contracts that expired at different times. In San Francisco, their contract expired in August. And prior to that, there were months and months of negotiations where nothing really happened. Their biggest demand is, you know, an increase in wages. They also want the hotels to increase staffing back to pre-COVID levels. They want health care benefits, pensions, typical things that you would see in a union contract negotiation. But I think the big thing here is the return to pre-COVID staffing levels. Just because the amount of work that these hotel workers have taken on and this is like bellhops, you know, people who clean rooms, dishwashers, servers, bartenders, they say is just too much.
Alan Montecillo [00:14:40] So what is the argument from management then?
Jessica Kariisa [00:14:44] Management says that they have increased wages over the years. And they also insist that they are trying to cooperate with the union as best as they can. But in a lot of their public statements, they also really seem to be emphasizing, you know, minimizing disruptions for guests. Their focus is really, you know, with people not working and strikes happening outside of hotels, that they want to normalize the experience for their guests.
[00:15:11] But to that point, the union released a website that collects all the reviews of these hotels that have been striking, particularly the negative reviews that, you know, really emphasize what these hotels are missing by not having these workers there. And it’s been really interesting to see. You know, you’ll see stuff like “4/10 poor. The strike made it not enjoyable and room was filthy.” You know, or “showed up on day two of the strike. And the hotel gave no warning that I’d have to walk across the picket line.” So things like that, just to sort of really emphasize their cause. So, yeah, well, we’ll see what happens.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:15:54] And you mentioned this has been going on for six weeks now.
Jessica Kariisa [00:15:58] Yeah.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:15:58] What do we know about the status of negotiations between these workers and the hotels? And do we have a sense of when this could end?
Jessica Kariisa [00:16:08] Yeah, So it seems to be a real stalemate. Representatives from the hotels are like, hey, we, you know, offered something up and you guys haven’t responded. One of the union rep said that the last contract that they received from Hyatt was back in August before the strike even started. And so they argue that the hotels have not been coming to the negotiation table since the strikes have started. So it’s really unclear when this will end. I think also, you know, the union is bolstered by a recent success they had last year in Southern California where they were able to, through intermittent striking, secure a huge pay raise for hotel workers down there. So, you know, it’s tough. It’s a financial risk for all these employees. But, you know, they have seen these kinds of strikes work. And so I think they’re just going to hold out until they get what they want.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:17:05] Jessica, thanks.
Jessica Kariisa [00:17:06] Thank you.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:17:13] And just if I may bring it back to the election, we’re going to wrap this one up with an interesting story that I have been following out of the peninsula. Our colleague Ted Goldberg, who reports on oil refineries around the bay, reported last week on how the oil industry is spending thousands of dollars trying to influence a local city council race in the city of Belmont. And now you might be thinking, why Belmont? There’s no oil refinery there. Which is true. But some see this as an attempt to target Davina Hurt, who is running for city council in Belmont and who is also a top leader of the Bay Area Air Quality Management Board, which is the public agency that regulates air quality in the Bay Area. And that includes oil refineries and their impact on air quality.
Jessica Kariisa [00:18:13] Can you tell us a bit more about Davina Hurt and why the oil industry is interested in defeating her?
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:18:22] Hurt was one of 19 air district board members who in 2021 voted in favor of some of the most stringent refinery pollution controls in California history. And Hurt kind of stood out during this time because she was one of the first people from the air district board to publicly celebrate this historic vote.
Jessica Kariisa [00:18:50] Interesting. So it’s like a bit of retaliation.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:18:53] That is what she thinks.
Alan Montecillo [00:18:56] So when we say oil companies, the oil industry, who specifically are we talking about and what are they doing to try and influence this election?
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:19:06] So our colleague Ted Goldberg reported on essentially this super PAC that is funded by companies like Chevron, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum and PBF Energy, who have, through this super PAC, spent more than $23,000 supporting a Belmont City Council member named Tom McCune. And basically, this PAC has been sending pro McCune fliers out to people’s mailboxes in Belmont. What is interesting is that McCune, who I will mention, doesn’t even seem to have championed any oil industry interests and has actually said that clean air regulations is really important to him, said that he knew absolutely nothing about these fliers and didn’t approve them, didn’t know that they were going to people’s homes, until they basically started showing up. $23,000 isn’t a lot of money for a big oil company like Chevron, but it does kind of go a long way in a city like Belmont, which is a town of almost 28,000 people. I mean, it’s pretty small.
Alan Montecillo [00:20:20] And the messaging in this case is not “vote for oil industry interests.” I mean, this is quite common, right?
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:20:26] Yeah. There are many examples of the oil industry trying to influence local elections in this way in the Bay Area. I mean, in the last ten years, oil companies with refineries have spent even millions on city council races in cities like Richmond and Benicia. I mean, those are refinery towns. But this one is interesting because Belmont isn’t a refinery town. But I think we are sort of, as Ted Goldberg has been reporting on in the last couple of years, are really kind of at this turning point in the Bay Area’s relationship to the oil refineries that exist here. And we have seen over the last couple of years an attempt to really regulate them more. And this is just an interesting example of how the oil industry is trying to influence elections in this sort of new era.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:21:31] And that is it for the Bay’s October news roundup. Jessica and Alan, thanks so much for joining me.
Jessica Kariisa [00:21:37] Thanks so much.
Alan Montecillo [00:21:38] Thank you.