Poll Shows Affirmative Action, Property Tax Ballot Measures Struggling

A nationwide conversation on race and equality might not be enough for voters to reinstate affirmative action in California.

A new poll out from the Public Policy Institute of California finds just 31% of likely voters support Proposition 16. It would overturn a ban on affirmative action in government and public institutions that California voters approved in 1996.

Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, said that’s the most surprising finding from the poll.

“I would think that Prop. 16 would generate more support,” Baldassare said. “And at this point, two-thirds of the voters are either saying they don’t know or they would vote against it. And that’s including Democrats.”

Only 40% of likely voters in the Bay Area support the measure. Baldassare said the findings show Proposition 16 backers have a lot of work to do.

“Some of the more liberal parts of the state not moving immediately to the yes side suggests that people aren’t making a connection between Prop. 16 and what they’ve been hearing and reading about over the last few months,” he said.

An effort to revamp California’s controversial property tax system is also looking at a close race. A slight majority, 51% of likely voters, support Proposition 15. It would change how property taxes are assessed on commercial and industrial properties in the state.

Baldassare said voters are split on the issue.

“Californians are divided on Proposition 15, with Republicans and Democrats, younger and older voters, and renters and homeowners showing widely different support for this tax and spending initiative,” Baldassare said.

He said that the measure might be confusing to voters, which isn’t good news for its backers.

“Whenever it comes to tax and spending measures, it’s complicated for voters and sometimes confusing,” he said. “And it’s easy for people to say I’m going to take a pass on this and let the experts figure it out.”

People are still concerned about COVID-19. The poll finds two-thirds of voters are worried about catching the virus and needing to be hospitalized.

“Californians continue to express concerns about getting sick from the coronavirus, and a slim majority say the worst is behind us,” Baldassare said.

But there appears to be more unity when it comes to support for Gov. Gavin Newsom, with 60% of likely voters approving of him. The same percentage support Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.

And two-thirds of likely California voters are also confident in the state’s election system.