At Republican National Convention, GOP Sees House Majority Running Through California

MILWAUKEE — It’s a message repeated at every stop California delegates have made at the Republican National Convention this week in Milwaukee — at banquet tables, in hotel hallways and on the floor of Fiserv Forum.

The state’s GOP sees their path to maintaining a majority in the House of Representatives running straight through California.

“We again have more targeted House races than any other state in the nation, and we will determine who wins majority control in November,” Jessica Millan Patterson, the state’s party chair, told delegates at the Sheraton Milwaukee Brookfield Hotel on Tuesday.

Republican optimism about the presidential election has trickled down to their view on the 10 California House races deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report — more than any other state. Five of them are Republican-held districts that President Biden won in 2020. While California conservatives acknowledge that local candidates and district-specific factors will affect the November results, party activists are heading home from Wisconsin bursting with confidence.

“California Republicans will be the reason a newly elected President Trump has a GOP House majority to help implement his agenda that will make California and America great again,” Patterson added.

With optimism high among party leaders, the focus shifts to key battlegrounds, where tight races could determine the GOP’s success. Among the closest watched seats are a pair of elections in the Central Valley, where GOP incumbents John Duarte and David Valadao will face challenges from the Democrats they defeated in 2022: former state Assemblymembers Adam Gray and Rudy Salas. Republicans are also looking to hold onto the seats held by Rep. Mike Garcia north of Los Angeles and Rep. Ken Calvert in the Inland Empire.

In Orange County, seats currently occupied by Democratic Rep. Mike Levin and Rep. Katie Porter (who left her seat open after a failed Senate run) and Republican Rep. Michelle Steel and Rep. Young Kim are all in play.

For some Republican congressional candidates, the convention in Milwaukee offered an opportunity to network with delegates, national donors and scores of cameras.

“It’s an opportunity to put themselves in front of national media, whether it’s traditional mainstream media and get some airtime there or whether it’s more conservative media that will help with fundraising and building their base across the country,” Republican strategist Tim Rosales said.

On Wednesday, Calvert shook hands with GOP delegates at a party luncheon at the Harley-Davidson Museum, before heading to the Discovery World science museum to speak to the Log Cabin Republicans, a group of LGBT party members.

Matt Gunderson, a businessman running against Levin in a coastal district spanning San Diego County to Orange County, hopped between interviews along media row at the UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena. He said family ties sealed his decision to attend the RNC.

“I was born and raised in Wisconsin, and it’s likely if this convention was in another state, I wouldn’t have attended,” Gunderson said. “But, as a candidate for Congress, you know that money is the mother’s milk of politics. So I’m using this opportunity to reconnect with some old friends in Wisconsin and hopefully bring some Wisconsin money back to California.”

Other candidates in competitive House seats, such as Duarte, Kim and Valadao, made a different calculation: that the week would be better spent back home in their districts.

“Being in Milwaukee, it’s fine; it’s great to be in the spirit of the party, but … we can’t honestly waste a day,” said Randall Avila, executive director of the Orange County Republican Party. “So, you know, coming out here and spending a week is not going to be helpful to the campaign when they need to be out there meeting with voters and earning that support.”

Besides, a convention swelling with adoration for Trump is an uncomfortable setting for some of the GOP House hopefuls. The former president has remained deeply unpopular in overwhelmingly blue California, and candidates like Kim and Steel were able to win reelection in districts Biden won in 2020.

Avila explained that the strategy in those Orange County districts combines high Republican voter turnout, motivated by Trump, with vote-splitting — an increasingly rare occurrence — where voters choose a Democratic presidential candidate and a Republican congressional candidate.

“[Trump] brings out a lot of voters, and those voters will absolutely vote down the ticket for Republican candidates,” Avila said. “For those independents and no party preference voters, it may be ticket splitting.”

What makes this cycle different, Republicans say, is the seemingly unsettled fate of the Democratic ticket. As the convention rolled along in Milwaukee, an increasing number of Democrats — including Los Angeles Rep. Adam Schiff — called on Biden to drop out of the race over concerns about his mental fitness and his ability to defeat Trump in November.

Fresno County GOP Chairwoman Elizabeth Kolstad said in the races in her backyard, which includes the 13th District seat held by Duarte, “crossover votes from Democrats don’t really exist.”

“For the most part, they will still vote for their candidate no matter how poor he is,” she added.

As a result, Kolstad thinks these tight races in the Valley will be decided by “enthusiasm in the candidates,” suggesting that Democratic disillusionment with Biden could have repercussions for the party’s House candidates.

Democrats see California’s competitive House races playing out differently. Their candidates remain financially competitive with Republicans in the tightest districts  — and have outraised GOP candidates in recent months. If Biden continues to lag behind Trump in polling, Democratic donors could prioritize their spending down-ballot.

“While Republicans unite around their far-right Project 2025 agenda and openly campaign on gutting the resources that California families rely on, we remain optimistic that our path to 218 runs through the Golden State,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Dan Gottlieb said, referring to the seats needed for a House majority.

Additionally, Democrats are banking on the fact that California will not be contested political ground in the race for president. Many of the advertisements voters see in these districts will focus on the congressional races, not the top of the ticket.

“Democrats have the right mix of candidates, messages, and resources to organize, mobilize, and communicate early and often with California families in the home stretch and retake the House majority,” Gottlieb added.

Rep. Vince Fong, the newly elected congressman from Bakersfield, acknowledged that a lot could still happen between now and November. Changes to the Democratic ticket, campaigns on California ballot measures, and unexpected headlines could all impact House seats previously decided by the slimmest of margins.

But speaking to KQED’s Political Breakdown at an RNC event, Fong joined in his delegation’s optimism.

“I think the momentum is in our favor,” he said.

KQED’s Guy Marzorati is reporting from the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.