California Minimum Wage Voter Support Falters as Inflation Worries Linger

As many voters remain anxious about inflation, support for a California ballot measure that would gradually raise the minimum wage statewide appears to be waning, according to new survey data.

The statewide poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found only about 44% of likely voters backed Proposition 32, compared to 50% in September.

Supporters say the measure, which would require employers to pay a minimum of $18 an hour by 2026, could help an estimated 2 million working Californians better afford basic necessities. The lowest-paid jobs in the state include farmworkers, home health care aides and cashiers.

But arguments by business trade groups that employers would be forced to absorb a more expensive payroll by raising prices and cutting jobs — and exacerbate the state’s cost of living — seem to be sticking in the current election climate.

“Voters are smart and inflation fatigued,” Jot Condie, president and CEO of the California Restaurant Association, said in a statement. “The recent poll showing a majority of voters would vote no on Prop. 32 is encouraging given the devastating impacts it will have on family budgets and on small businesses.”

While some businesses may struggle temporarily to pay for higher wages, most economic studies show minimum wage raises have little to no impact on employment overall, though they can lead to small price increases.

In California’s fast food industry, where a state law required most employers to pay at least $20 an hour, researchers at UC Berkeley, Harvard and other institutions found no job losses, as opponents in the restaurant industry had warned. Menu prices increased, but only by about 15 cents on a $4 hamburger, according to the study published last month by the UC Berkeley Institute for Research on Labor and Employment.

The campaign opposed to Proposition 32 has scared some voters, said Saru Jayaraman, president of the nonprofit One Fair Wage.

“None of the doom and gloom that they predicted turned out to be true,” Jayaraman, who is part of the Yes on 32 campaign, said, referring to the fast food minimum wage increase. “At some point, we have to realize that this is big business willing to put money into lying to people rather than put money into paying workers.”

If Proposition 32 passes, large businesses with 26 or more employees must raise their minimum pay immediately to $17 an hour and to $18 by 2025. Smaller employers would have until Jan. 1, 2026, to make the adjustment.

Supporters aimed to qualify the measure for the ballot in 2022 but missed a key deadline. In the current economic landscape, an $18 hourly wage is woefully insufficient but a step in the right direction, Jayaraman said.

“I still hope we can win,” she added. “There are lots of people in California struggling, living in their car, working multiple jobs, who need a raise to feed their family. And we have to keep fighting for more because 18 is not enough.”

The U.S. economy has largely rebounded from the pandemic, according to experts. Unemployment remains relatively low. Inflation, which is at a three-year low, is expected to continue decreasing, and consumer spending has been stronger than expected. Still, concerns about consumer prices remain top of mind, and a majority of Californians believe the state’s economy could experience a downturn in the next year, according to the PPIC.

About two-thirds of Democrats said they would vote for Proposition 32 in the most recent PPIC poll, with the highest levels of support in the San Francisco Bay Area. But that’s not enough to overcome opposition by a majority of Republicans and independents elsewhere in the state, said Mark Baldassare, who directs the statewide survey.

Last November, the non-profit research institution reported that 67% of likely voters said they would back a policy to raise the hourly minimum to $18, but that hasn’t translated into approval for this particular proposition, Baldassare added.

“The burden of proof is always on the proponents. It’s the easiest thing for people to say, ‘If I’m not sure, I’m going to vote no,’” he said, adding that about two in three ballot propositions fail. “So the proponents have work to do in this case to get to the majority vote.”