Proposition 32: Measure to Raise California's Minimum Wage Still Too Close to Call

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A California ballot measure that would modestly increase the statewide minimum wage remains in tight contention, with opposition to it slightly ahead, based on the most recent results tally Wednesday afternoon.

Roughly 52% of ballots counted so far were against Proposition 32, according to the Associated Press.

The measure would give an estimated 2 million Californians a raise, to $18 an hour by 2026 — up from the current statewide minimum wage of $16 an hour. The increase would likely benefit workers in some of the state’s lowest-paid jobs, including cashiers, farmworkers, food preparers and home health aides.

“I’m still hopeful that we will see a win,” said Joshua Rudy Ochoa, 25, a supporter of the measure, at an election watch party in San Francisco’s Mission district. “But if it doesn’t, I think it just shows that we need to continue the fight for working class folks and up and down the state.”

Under Proposition 32, businesses with 26 or more employees would be required to immediately increase pay to at least $17 an hour, and $18 by 2025. Smaller businesses would have until Jan 1., 2026, to make the jump.

The ballot measure would not impact higher wage floors in dozens of counties and cities — including many in the Bay Area — or in certain industries in the state, such as fast food in which most employers must now pay at least $20 an hour.

Opponents of the measure including the California Restaurant Association and California Grocers Association, among a host of other business trade groups, argued that higher payroll costs would force businesses to cut jobs and increase the price of products and services to stay afloat.

Most economic studies show minimum wage raises have little or no impact on jobs overall, although they can lead to small price increases. Researchers at UC Berkeley studying the fast-food minimum wage raise California implemented in April, for instance, found months later that menu prices had risen about 3.7%, but the policy had not adversely affected employment.

California’s Legislative Analyst’s office found Proposition 32 could increase or decrease costs for state and local governments due to a more expensive payroll, but also yield savings due to fewer people enrolling in Medi-Cal and other safety net programs.

A growing number of voters in blue and red states have approved dozens of minimum wage raises in recent decades, a recognition that pay has not sufficiently kept up with the cost of living, according to economists.

The U.S. economy has largely rebounded from the pandemic, with a relatively low unemployment rate, according to experts. But inflation remains a top concern for voters.

Just weeks before the election, support for the measure hovered at 47%, just short of the majority it needed to pass, according to two statewide polls.

Enrique Lopezlira, a labor economist at UC Berkeley, said the low-visibility campaign for Proposition 32, including few advertisements, could be playing a role in the results, particularly in an election with 10 state propositions on the ballot.

“There’s a lot of competition for people’s attention during elections,” said Lopezlira, who directs the university’s Low-Wage Work program. “It could be that it was just a lack of information about what it would mean to pass the proposition. So I’m not sure that I would attribute it to anything specifically of the minimum wage itself, but more of maybe the strategies the campaigns used during the election cycle.”