Can Trump Really Withhold Fire Relief From California? He’s Tried It Before

On the campaign trail, former President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened to cut off financial disaster recovery aid to California, even as the state grapples with increasingly large and destructive fires due in part to climate change.

“We’re not giving any of that fire money that we send you all the time for all the fire, forest fires that you have,” Trump said at a pre-election rally in California’s Coachella Valley, directing the threat toward Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.

If history is any indicator, Trump is almost certain to follow through on that threat, as presidents have executive authority to decide whether, when and where to direct emergency aid.

Federal disaster assistance is provided through the Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, a federal law enacted in 1988 that designed the system through which states request and are granted financial assistance after a natural disaster.

After a wildfire, for example, local emergency responders are first to assess damage and relay information to state officials, who are responsible for declaring a state of emergency, should the incident arise to such a level, and shoring up state financial assistance.

Then, the governor reaches out to the Federal Emergency Management Agency and requests a disaster declaration. FEMA has various guidelines before making such a recommendation, including assessing the extent and severity of damage and an estimate of how much funding is needed.

Once FEMA has recommended a disaster declaration, it goes to the secretary of Homeland Security (Trump has nominated South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem for that position), who sends it on up to the president to approve or deny.

“The problem is that this whole process, once you get above FEMA to the Department of Homeland Security and between the president, those conversations are executive privilege, so we can’t analyze what’s going on there,” said Matt Sedlar, a climate analyst at the Center for Economic and Policy Research who researches disaster relief aid. “It could just be a political decision.”

During his first term in office, Trump sought to deny wildfire recovery aid to California on multiple occasions. In 2018, as the Camp Fire became California’s deadliest on record, Trump resisted providing aid because of the state’s Democratic leanings, according to Politico. He reportedly changed his mind after his aides pulled data showing how many people voted for him in the affected areas.

And in 2020, in the aftermath of six major wildfires that burned across the state, the Trump administration initially denied the state aid, saying the disaster declaration was “not supported by the relevant data.” It eventually reversed that decision.

“Why would he punish any American really reeling from a natural disaster?” Democratic Rep. Jared Huffman, who represents parts of the North Bay and California’s North Coast region, said in an interview this week with KQED. “It’s just so despicable. But that’s likely to be what we’re up against, and we’ve got a few strategies that we’re developing to deal with it.”

Huffman, whose district has been faced with historic wildfires in recent years, said he’s been in talks this week with Newsom and colleagues in California’s congressional delegation about disaster aid contingency plans for Trump’s second term.

“Basically, how California can backfill and protect things that we care about and how we are going to navigate some of these likely confrontations going forward,” he said.

Newsom is looking to establish a fund he can draw from in the event of a natural disaster, he said in an interview with Politico. He’s expected to introduce the funding as part of his budget proposal in January.

Though Trump isn’t the only president to deny California wildfire aid, he stands apart in directly citing political reasons for doing so. Research shows that political factors do shade presidents’ decisions to deny disaster relief, particularly during election years, but Sedlar said, “I can’t think of any other instances in which a president has said the quiet part out loud so many times.”

President Biden denied individual assistance — a type of financial aid for affected individuals — to victims of the 2021 Caldor Fire after FEMA determined that enough of them were covered by insurance.

Rep. Tom McClintock, a Republican who represents the area affected by the Caldor Fire, appealed Biden’s decision.

“The denial of Individual Assistance, if allowed to stand, will have devastating consequences on survivors whose homes and livelihoods have been destroyed,” he wrote in a letter at the time.

Newsom, tribal authorities and members of Congress can appeal a decision to deny aid, but “unless there’s some kind of political factor that might change the president’s mind, he doesn’t really have to change anything,” Sedlar said.

There are other possible avenues for federal relief, Sedlar said, including suing the federal government — specifically the U.S. Forest Service — for negligence in its recent decision to halt prescribed burns, which can protect homes from future wildfires. Still, it’s unlikely a lawsuit payout would equal FEMA aid.

Although Democratic nominee Kamala Harris won the state, Trump increased his margins in California this election, which could potentially help the state secure federal relief when wildfires undoubtedly strike over the next four years. Though, by that logic, the Bay Area could face hurdles in seeking aid.

“Obviously, wildfires do not follow political boundaries, and some of these coastal areas that have fires went towards Harris,” Sedlar said.