And sort of another prong that I think is important here and that the recalls talked about a lot is that she took ownership of a pretty high profile debacle where the city failed to apply for a state grant to combat retail theft. There was a breakdown by a lot of different stakeholders in the city around that grant. But Thao said the buck stops with her and the callers were very happy to blame her for that.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:03:13] I mean, how decisive was Sheng Thao’s recall in terms of how voters voted?
Eli Wolfe [00:03:21] The ballots are still being counted, but Thao has conceded, and I think that’s because it looks like it’s a mandate. You know, as of I think Monday, the count was about 61% in favor versus 38% opposed. So I think it speaks pretty clearly that, you know, a pretty big majority of Oaklanders wanted her gone.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:03:42] I mean, ultimately, was Mayor Sheng Thao’s recall surprising? Was this outcome surprising?
Eli Wolfe [00:03:48] To make it very short. Not really. You know, there was a poll commissioned by the Chamber of Commerce that came out shortly before the election happened that showed a majority of surveyed residents favor the recall. We took that with a grain of salt. She notched some pretty big wins during her time in office. You know, she didn’t layoff people in either of her budgets. She brought the bottlers to Raimondi Park. She revived a anti-gun violence program called Cease Fire. There’s been a big drop in homicides and violent crime this year. But I think that people’s views of her were pretty much locked in from 2023. A lot of bad stuff unfolded under his watch right when she started office. You know, she fired the police chief. That upset a lot of people. There was also a ransomware attack two months into her administration. Yeah. Which I mean, was a huge deal. And, you know, we’re still seeing the effects of that in public records requests for like, you know, data that we request as reporters we can’t get because it just disappeared from the system. Four months into her tenure. The A’s announced they were leaving Oakland. Two months after that, the city had to pass a budget that didn’t have any Covid relief money to patch up a historic deficit of $360 million. And, of course, you know, crime. I think the real nail in the coffin for her was the FBI raid in June. I think a lot of people that watch that happen just sort of assumed that it meant that she was guilty of something that’s not accurate. The FBI, the Department of Justice hasn’t said that Thao was actually suspected of any wrongdoing. They haven’t released any indictments. But the perception people took away from that was that she was guilty of something. So this was not surprising to me. I’ll say that.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:05:41] Can you talk a little bit about the role of money in the recall campaign? I mean, I know that Thao often brought up that that some of the main funders of the recall were a reason to vote against it?
Eli Wolfe [00:05:56] The main person funding the recall against Thao was a hedge fund executive named Philip Dreyfuss. He’s based in Piedmont. No one really knows why he was funding the recall, but he gave the recall hundreds of thousands of dollars. The Thao campaign flagged the fact that Dreyfus worked for this hedge fund that the hedge fund was invested in coal. They tried to draw this connection between Dreyfus and this proposed project to build a coal export terminal in Oakland and sort of paint him as a villain who was trying to remove her as the person who was going to stop that from happening. But ultimately, it doesn’t seem like voters in Oakland bought that argument or if they did believe it, they still felt angry with her about, you know, her failure on public safety issues, or at least their perception that she failed on public safety issues.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:06:52] I mean, in general, what has the response been so far to her recall?
Eli Wolfe [00:06:58] You know, I think that among her supporters, obviously, there’s been, you know, a lot of disappointment, although it’s kind of muted. Folks I’ve talked to have said that, you know, they were frustrated that a lot of the gains the town made this year seem to have been ignored by people. But I think they acknowledge that it wasn’t enough to sort of outweigh, you know, what voters experienced last year. And then among proponents, the people who supported the recall, obviously they’re very jubilant. Seneca Scott, who was the spokesperson for the recall, has been doing victory laps on Twitter. Brenda Harbin-Forte, who led the campaign, has also been pretty active on social media celebrating it. In general, they feel like they they won a big victory here.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:07:45] What about Sheng Thao herself? How has she responded to the recall.
Eli Wolfe [00:07:50] On November 8th last week, she issued a statement that pretty much acknowledged that she was conceding that the recall was going to pass. You know, she thanked Oaklanders for electing her as the first American woman to become mayor of a major American city. She talked about some of her administration’s accomplishments. It was kind of like a very short obituary for her administration. It’s notable. I think the town didn’t get a ton of support from local elected leaders during the recall. Other than a few of her progressive allies, you know, someone who I think will be interesting to watch going forward is Congresswoman Barbara Lee. She came out real strong against the recall and now her name is being floated as a replacement for towels. So she might have more to say on this matter going forward.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:08:33] I feel like it is kind of hard to ignore, Eli, the fact that Alameda County had a countywide recall effort against the district attorney, Pamela Price, and that that recall was also successful. I mean, what do you make of both recalls happening at the same time and also succeeding at the same time?
Eli Wolfe [00:08:54] Yeah, it’s really interesting. They weren’t driven by the exact same factors. Obviously, since they were very different roles. But I think the big length that you can point to is public safety. There was a perception among people that I’ve talked to you for the last year and a half that both of these were progressive elected officials who didn’t have a handle on public safety issues during a time when Oakland was experiencing a surge in certain kinds of crime. I also think it’s hard not to place both of these recalls in the national context. You know, incumbents across the country, in California, in the Bay Area, face really serious challenges and a lot of them were ousted. Just again, talking to people in the course of my reporting, it seems like a lot of folks are really frustrated, really angry, really afraid. And they were blaming incumbents and wanted them out.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:10:07] What happens now then, Eli? When is Oakland going to have a new mayor?
Eli Wolfe [00:10:13] We haven’t finished counting ballots, but once that happens, the election will be certified. That is most likely going to be in mid-December. At that point, power will be removed from office. After that happens, the city council president, Nikki Fortunato Bas, assuming she doesn’t win her race for the Alameda County Board of Supervisors D 5 race will take over as interim mayor until a special election is scheduled and held within a few months. And once that happens, Oakland will then have a new mayor who serves out the rest of his term. Then come 2026, voters will head back to the polls and elect a new mayor who will serve a full four year term. So we’re looking at not having a permanent mayor until 2026.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:11:02] Wow. That’s kind of crazy to think about.
Eli Wolfe [00:11:05] Yeah. Yeah, it’s it’s dizzying. The word that I keep hearing people throw around is circus. And it does kind of feel like a circus.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:11:14] Yeah. I mean, do we have any sense of who might be vying for this role?
Eli Wolfe [00:11:20] Yeah, there are some names that are out there. Top of the list is Loren Taylor. Is a former council member representing D6. He ran against Thao 2022 and lost by a pretty narrow margin. And he’s basically been running for this job ever since. And he filed on Tuesday to run. So he’s he’s definitely in the race. Another person who’s confirmed that they’re going to run is Isaac Kos-Reed. He’s a lobbyist who’s done a lot of business with the city representing billboard companies, affordable housing developers. He served on the Oakland Parks and Recreation Advisory Commission. He hasn’t filed yet, as far as I know, but he probably will. Another person who’s running is Mindy Pechenuk. She is a economist. A classical music scholar. She announced that she’s going to run. She’s a Republican. She’s a Donald Trump supporter. She’s run in a bunch of races. I think she ran in to this year, including the At-Large Race. She never gets many votes, but that does not stop her. We also know that there are some people who might run. I mentioned Barbara Lee before. She has refused to directly address the question one put to her. But the chatter I hear from people is she is very much a contender and could go for it. Allysa Victory, she’s an ACLU attorney who also ran in 2022. Carroll Fife, the D3 Council member. Marshawn Lynch. I think a lot of people might remember that a few months ago he was on a podcast with the governor and that I guess they were floating the idea that he might run. And I think the last one that’s worth mentioning here is Renia Webb, who was Thao’s chief of staff for a brief period. She also told us that she plans on filing papers to run.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:13:10] I mean, that is such a it’s like a grab bag of folks really potentially running for this role. I feel like circus really is the right word here. I mean, what big questions do you have moving forward, Eli? I mean, I think what really sticks out to me is that Oakland isn’t going to have a permanent mayor until 2026.
Eli Wolfe [00:13:34] Yeah, that is really relatable. I have a ton of questions about what’s going to happen. We’ve now seen three big successful recalls against high profile politicians in the Bay. Chesa Boudin, the DA in San Francisco, was recalled in 2022. This year it’s Pamela Price and Sheng Thao. Seeing them clustered like this and seeing how successful they were, it makes me wonder if this is going to become like a regular tool in Oakland politics and what that will mean for like, you know, our our elections. You know, it’s kind of easy to imagine, right? Like every year will be an election year because there will be a recall happening against, you know, whoever is being targeted for, you know, whatever policy or action, you know, some group of people are upset with. I think more immediately, another interesting thing that I’m curious about is whoever becomes mayor is going to inherit a really, really brutal budget crisis in Oakland. I think the budget administrator said at a recent meeting, You know, there are only tough decisions ahead. So I, I don’t envy that person, but I am very curious what they’re going to do.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:14:53] What is your sense of what Oakland voters want to see?
Eli Wolfe [00:14:59] I think it depends on who you talk to. But the sense I get from most people is that they’re really focused on the national results. I think a lot of people were shocked and are now very upset about the fact that Donald Trump is going to be president again. So, you know, they’re going to be looking to their local leaders for providing a sense of stability and security. There’s a sense that, like, people want to see strength and, you know, a reflection of Oakland’s values from the people who are heading into government next year. Oakland seen a big decrease in homicides and violent crime. But. You know, again, there’s a perception that Oakland doesn’t feel safe for some people. And city officials will have to address that with very, very limited resources. That. That’s some of what I think people are looking at and hoping to see. But, you know, I’m just sort of looking at the tea leaves.
Ericka Cruz Guevarra [00:16:01] Well, Eli, thank you so much for making the time to chat with us. I appreciate it.