Remains of destroyed homes smolder in Glen Ellen in October 2017. A new report warns Sonoma Valley roads could become a "death trap" if residents need to flee a wildfire. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Sonoma Valley roads could turn into a “death trap” in a wildfire evacuation, leaving residents stuck in up to nine hours of traffic, according to a recent study.
The 187-page report, released to the public on Monday, was commissioned by the local Valley of the Moon Alliance, or VOTMA, which plans to present it to the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors.
“We really wanted to do something that would help make people aware of what some of the parameters are in trying to get out of the valley if it burns — and it’s going to burn again,” said Kevin Padian, who was an advisor on the study and part of a group that pushed for it.
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The results of the study, although numerous, boil down to two concerning observations of the county’s current capacity for mass evacuations: it’s inadequate and severely outdated.
“The roads in the Sonoma Valley haven’t been improved in a major way for a century,” Padian said. “At present, they are not sufficient to service our present population in case of an evacuation.”
An evacuation of the valley would entail about 34,000 vehicles fleeing the area on two routes, which would cause traffic to move at 1–2 mph, according to the report.
Padian is a former member of the Kensington Fire Board near the Berkeley Hills, which conducted a similar study. He said he felt compelled to push for a Sonoma Valley traffic study after experiencing the 2017 fires that ripped through the valley and left residents trying to flee in gridlock.
The study simulated evacuations based on the outlined routes and current population and found that residents would spend hours in gridlock. Glen Ellen residents, notably, are projected to see up to nine hours of traffic congestion.
“Everything’s going to get choked in a fire,” Padian said. “They’ve [KLD Associates] got animations of what’s going to happen and how, and the results are really sobering.”
Rebecca Cohen, a program director who managed the study for Texas-based firm KLD Associates, said the results showed the valley’s roadway capacity would likely fall short of demand in an evacuation.
“I do have concerns as to whether or not they would be able to evacuate in sufficient time,” said Cohen, who is a traffic engineer by trade. “It’s tough to say because without knowing exactly where a fire is going to start and how quickly it’s going to spread, I cannot say for sure if there is sufficient time to evacuate.”
An out-of-control wildfire approaches Gundlach Bundschu winery on Oct. 9, 2017, in Sonoma, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
VOTMA, a nonprofit grassroots organization founded in 2002 by Sonoma Valley residents, has been vocal in challenging various policy and development proposals in the county, specifically as they relate to wildlife and agriculture. Its organizers raised $90,000 to fund the Sonoma Area Fire Evacuation report.
Cohen said the firm is usually contracted by governmental municipalities or private utility nuclear plants, so it was a surprise when VOTMA reached out to them.
“It was actually really nice because there was a ton of community engagement, review, input and concern,” Cohen said.
Padian said that while KLD Associates compiled traffic and road data, VOTMA conducted a survey of evacuation behaviors and needs and gathered other demographic data.
“I really think that every municipality in the wildlife-urban interface should have something like this to guide them in how to plan to get people out,” Padian said.
Sonoma County Supervisor Lynda Hopkins acknowledged the concerns brought up by Padian and VOTMA, writing in a statement that “when Sonoma County’s infrastructure and communities were built decades ago, leaders weren’t planning for an era of catastrophic wildfire and mass evacuations.”
Hopkins also noted that the area is “seeing major landslides that take out critical evacuation routes and require complicated engineering solutions and permitting processes to repair — projects that can take years and millions of dollars to complete.”
Supervisor Rebecca Hermosillo, whose district includes the Sonoma Valley, thanked VOTMA for their “initiative and leadership.”
“I look forward to reading the study and working through our county process that will also seek to address public safety,” she said in a statement.
VOTMA plans to hold a community meeting on Feb. 24 to present the study’s findings and rally other residents before taking the report to the Board of Supervisors.
Feb. 13: A previous version of this story incorrectly said Kevin Padian was a VOTMA founder and former member of the Sonoma County Fire Board. He advised on the study commissioned by VOTMA and served on a different fire board in the East Bay. It has been updated to correct the error.
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