A pedestrian carrying an umbrella on Mission Street on Feb. 4, 2025. San Francisco and the South Bay, which were spared by the worst of previous storms, are expected to be hit hard by rain this week. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)
One of the season’s strongest storms is set to hit the Bay Area on Wednesday night, dumping inches of rain across the region overnight.
San Francisco and the South Bay, which have been spared by much of the rain so far this winter as storms tracked farther north, are forecast to be hit especially hard.
“We haven’t really had a storm of this caliber so far this season,” said Dalton Behringer, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “The North Bay has seen that, but the Bay Area and Central Coast has missed out on much of that action as of now, so this will be the first that we’re seeing of potentially flash flooding conditions and widespread shallow landslides.”
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Showers are expected to start in the North Bay and San Francisco on Wednesday evening, growing more powerful around 7 p.m. before reaching the South Bay a few hours later.
The bulk of the rain will fall overnight as the system picks up moisture, fueled by a strong atmospheric river dropping between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain in the low-elevation areas and up to 6 inches in the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia mountain ranges.
In an aerial view, damage from a powerful storm is visible on Jan. 6, 2023, in Capitola. Flood watch will be in effect in Santa Cruz County beginning at 10 p.m. on Feb. 12, 2025. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Flood watches will begin at 10 p.m. in Sonoma County, where the Russian River and other waterways overflowed last week, as well as in Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties. Those are set to remain in effect until Saturday night.
“The commute [Thursday] morning is going to be terrible, to put it bluntly,” Behringer said.
As showers continue Thursday morning, saturated soils will increase the potential for downed trees and widespread shallow landslides, especially in those South Bay ranges. High winds are also forecast, which could lead to downed power lines and cause outages.
Santa Clara County officials are warning residents to be prepared to lose electricity.
“Make sure that people have enough flashlights, different generators, and things like that, to make sure that they are prepared for potential power outages due to the damaging winds,” Santa Clara emergency management spokesperson Charles Harris said.
The county is extending hours at its warming centers and offering some overnight locations for unhoused people and anyone who wants to avoid traveling in the rough conditions. Harris said the city will post updated hours on the department’s website.
Santa Cruz County also issued a warning that power outages and flooding are likely.
“There definitely will be outages just due to power poles down,” Behringer said. “With soils being saturated, especially in the Santa Cruz Mountains, that’s going to make it easier for trees to come down and infrastructure to be threatened by some landslides.”
Throughout the storm, a high surf warning will be in effect along all Pacific Coast beaches, where waves could break up to 30 feet and even occasionally 45 feet, Behringer said.
“We don’t recommend being in the water at all,” he said, adding that there’s a threat of sneaker waves and rough surf on Thursday through early Saturday.
Thursday afternoon, there is also a chance of scattered thunderstorms after the heaviest rains have passed, but by Friday, clear skies should cover most of the region and continue into the weekend. Some light rain could return early next week.
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