Could Kamala Harris Shake Up California’s Governor Race? Democrats Weigh In

This column was reported for Political Breakdown, a bi-monthly newsletter offering analysis and context on Bay Area and California political news. Click here to subscribe.

It’s not surprising that just three weeks into President Donald Trump’s second term, California finds itself in the crosshairs over sanctuary laws, transgender athletes, climate change and water policies, to name just a few.

It has forced Gov. Gavin Newsom, in light of the devastation from fires in Los Angeles, to exchange his years of anti-Trump rhetoric for something more akin to kissing the ring of a president who is acting like a king hellbent on settling scores and punishing political enemies.

California is fighting back in the courts. Attorney General Rob Bonta joined blue state attorneys general in seeking to stop Trump orders to freeze federal funding, including grants funding research at public and private universities in California.

All this comes as the announced candidates for the 2026 gubernatorial election await a decision from a possible contender: former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Last week, California Attorney General Rob Bonta told Politico’s Dustin Gardiner that he won’t run for governor as had been widely expected. Gardiner shared details of his conversation with Bonta on Political Breakdown.

Bonta, who has known Harris for years, told Politico he thought she’d be “a great governor.”

“I would support her if she ran,” Bonta said. “I’ve always supported her in everything she’s done.”

Harris and her husband, Doug Emhoff, toured the devastation from the Los Angeles wildfires. She met with first responders and people who lost their homes and businesses. They served meals at a shelter.

“I have been home for two weeks and three days. My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them,” Harris said when asked if she was running.

Clearly, Harris is keeping her options open. And why shouldn’t she?

A Berkeley IGS poll cosponsored by the Los Angeles Times that was published in November found Harris would have clear advantages over the likely field of candidates.

In the survey, taken in October before the 2024 election, voters were asked whether they would consider supporting Harris for governor. Forty-six percent said they were either very or somewhat likely to consider voting for her.

By comparison, even without Harris in the race, no candidate received more than the 13% when voters were asked to name their first or second choice for governor.

“Ten years ago, I said to her, I thought she would make a great governor. And I think the same thing today,” said Brian Brokaw, a political strategist who worked for Harris in her successful runs for state attorney general and the U.S. Senate, as well as her failed run for president in 2019.

Brokaw, who said he hasn’t talked to Harris recently, expects her to announce a decision “within a month or two.”

“She is always taking her time and coming to these big types of life decisions. And then once she makes a decision, she doesn’t stop,” Brokaw said.

Even without Bonta in the race, Democrats have a potentially strong field of gubernatorial candidates already. The list includes Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former Assembly Speaker and Senate President Toni Atkins and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond.

“I think Kamala Harris’ entry into the race would be an earthquake that would have, you know, all sorts of aftershocks down the ballot,” Brokaw said.

Harris knows most of the candidates, some of them quite well. And that could be awkward.

“I think one of the challenges is that (Harris) and Eleni Kounalakis are very close friends,” said Democratic fundraiser Mark Buell, adding that Kounalakis “is pretty well out there in the race.”

Kounalakis, who was on Political Breakdown on Thursday, has racked up support for her campaign from a few prominent Democrats, including Hillary Clinton and former U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer.

“I think (Harris) has an incredibly important leadership role to play in the future, should she choose to take one. And I suspect that she is adjusting and processing,” Kounalakis said. “I think that things are going to change probably in the next couple of weeks.

“So I’m waiting, just like most of my supporters and others who I hope will be my supporters are kind of waiting to see what happens.”

Boxer, who has also endorsed Villaraigosa, admits Harris “would be so formidable.” She said the first question Harris has to answer is whether she wants to run for president in 2028.

“If you’re just doing it (running for governor) because you lost another race, people get it,” Boxer said. “The voters are very smart. They want you to be enthused, excited.”

In other words, if it seems like Harris views the governor’s job as a consolation prize to the presidency, it won’t help her candidacy. Running for governor and winning would essentially foreclose another run for president.

“I haven’t talked to anybody that said they hope she doesn’t run (for governor),” Buell said. “And there’s enough of a base that I think that there are people who would like to see her do it.”

At the same time, Buell said, there was considerably less enthusiasm for another Harris option: Another run for president.

“I would tell you that the party leaders that I’ve talked to don’t see her as the most viable (candidate) four years from now,” Buell said.

Throughout her political career, Harris has often been criticized for seeming to lack authenticity while campaigning. She is cautious and often guarded.

“If she runs, I would expect her to wage a much more personal campaign for governor of her home state,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political communication at UC Berkeley and the University of Southern California.

Schnur, who called Harris “one of the most risk-averse politicians in the country,” said a run for governor would give her a chance to campaign in friendlier political territory than she often experienced in her 100-day run for president — and on issues where she is more personally comfortable.

California has never had a female governor, and Harris, as well as the other women running, could break that barrier. Aimee Allison, whose organization She the People advocates for electing more women of color, said at this moment, that alone is not enough for any candidate.

“Even more important than representation, they have to make an argument that the old guard and the old way of politicking isn’t going to work in Trump’s America, not Trump 2.0,” Allison said. “There’s too many attacks, and they’re coming from so many different places.”

While Newsom has pivoted from criticizing Trump to figuring out how to flatter him enough to get what California needs in disaster relief, Allison said accommodation is not an option for the next governor.

“You have to be willing to get into the arena, set your agenda and fight like hell. That’s who we want right now,” Allison said.

Harris would not be the first former vice president who ran for president and lost, then turned around and ran for governor of California two years later. Richard Nixon did it in 1962 after losing a razor-thin race to John F. Kennedy. Nixon lost a bitter campaign to Pat Brown, the incumbent Democratic governor.

After saying he was done with politics, Nixon reemerged eight years later and was elected president.

Asked what the downsides of Harris running for governor were, Schnur’s answer was simple.

“She could lose,” he said.