Low Turnout, High Stakes: District 3 Election Could Shift Power in San José

Next week’s special election for the District 3 seat on the San José City Council could help shape the balance of power at City Hall — and the future of Mayor Matt Mahan’s ambitious policy agenda.

Seven candidates are on the ballot in Tuesday’s election, which was scheduled after former Councilmember Omar Torres resigned in November. He was arrested on the same day and charged with child molestation. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on June 24.

Carl Salas, an engineering executive, was appointed to fill the seat until a new council member was elected, giving Mahan a clear majority of allies on the council. On the campaign trail and in interviews with KQED, the candidates expressed stark differences in their opinions of Mahan’s most controversial proposals, specifically his plans to prioritize city homelessness dollars for short-term housing and arrest unhoused people who refuse multiple offers of shelter.

“It’s really turning into a referendum on the mayor’s agenda,” said Bob Staedler, a land-use consultant and finalist for District 3’s interim appointment.

Under San José’s system of governance, the mayor does not have the power to sign or veto legislation but must instead find five other votes to build a majority coalition on the council.

Currently, Mahan has at least five Council members who appear aligned with his plans, particularly on homelessness, in Salas, Michael Mulcahy, Bien Doan, Pam Foley and George Casey.

If Salas is succeeded by a candidate who opposes some or all of Mahan’s platform, more power could shift to council members seen as swing votes, particularly District 1 representative Rosemary Kamei. Last month, Kamei voted to give Mahan’s budget, which included his plans on homelessness, initial approval.

The candidate in the District 3 race most closely aligned with the mayor’s agenda is Matthew Quevedo, who has worked as Mahan’s deputy chief of staff and received his endorsement. Quevedo is the only candidate who has voiced clear support for Mahan’s plan to have people experiencing homelessness face arrest if they refuse three offers of shelter within 18 months.

Unless a candidate wins the District 3 election outright in April, the new council member will take office after the council is expected to take a final vote on the shelter-or-arrest plan in June. Debates over the city’s strategy to reduce homelessness are likely to be an annual point of contention for the foreseeable future.

Quevedo has campaigned on being a reliable sixth vote for Mahan’s long-term vision of redirecting transfer tax dollars raised through Measure E away from permanent affordable housing and toward short-term housing and shelter.

“Building six votes for that and getting people off the streets is of utmost importance,” Quevedo said. “On solutions like interim housing and getting people off the streets more immediately, I would be a proud vote and a proud majority vote on making that happen faster.”

Quevedo said he would not agree with Mahan on every vote. He pointed to the council’s unanimous approval in February of digital billboards in downtown, which Quevedo and the rest of the District 3 candidates opposed.

The sharpest critiques of Mahan’s plans have come from Gabby Chavez-Lopez, the executive director of the Latina Coalition of Silicon Valley, who called the mayor’s homelessness enforcement proposal jarring at a candidate forum sponsored by San José Spotlight in March and said it made her “question what city I live in.”

Chavez-Lopez said she campaigned in 2020 to pass Measure E, which taxes property sales of $2 million or more and raises around $50 million annually. In his budget plan, Mahan wants to permanently direct nearly all of the Measure E revenue to pay for temporary housing.

“We were telling [voters] that it was for permanent supportive housing and prevention,” Chavez-Lopez said. “So for me, in a time when trust is at an all-time low, why are we going back on that commitment to voters?”

Anthony Tordillos, chair of the San José Planning Commission, said he could support spending more Measure E dollars in the short term to fulfill the council’s commitment to building out tiny home villages and parking lots for people living in their cars.

He opposes a permanent funding shift.

“Over time, we need to make sure that we’re getting back to a balanced allocation of Measure E dollars between both shelter spending as well as affordable housing,” he said.

Both Tordillos and Chavez-Lopez are endorsed by the Santa Clara County Democratic Party, which has typically lined up on opposite sides of Mahan in city elections.

Irene Smith, a financial analyst and neighborhood activist, said she would push to fund larger congregate shelter developments instead of the tiny home models preferred by Mahan.

“While we’re waiting for the housing to be built, whatever it is — tiny homes, permanent supportive housing, group homes — let’s offer [unhoused] people an incrementally better way of living right now,” Smith said.

Adam Duran, a former lieutenant with the Santa Clara County Sheriff’s Office, said his focus would be on opening mental health and drug treatment facilities.

While City Hall insiders will be closely monitoring the outcome of Tuesday’s election, the expected low voter turnout could make it difficult to draw any clear conclusions on how the electorate is viewing the policies advanced by Mahan and the council.

As of Wednesday, just 8% of registered voters in the district had cast a ballot. Staedler said such low turnout adds a new level of volatility to the race.

“I think this is going to be one of the more unpredictable votes that you’re going to see in a while,” Staedler said.