Oakland’s Big Special Election Day Is Here, and the Race Could Be Close

Updated 1:25 p.m. Tuesday

Special election day voting is underway in Oakland, and people waiting to cast their votes on 14th Street were split on the mayoral race, which appears to be tighter than expected between the two front-runners.

“It’s Barbara Lee versus Loren Taylor, basically, and I’m kind of conflicted on both of them,” Laurence Miotto said, echoing the sentiment of many Oaklanders outside the library polling place.

He’s ranking Lee first, he said, but doesn’t mind Taylor. Miotto’s barometer for mayor: “He’s not insane or anything.”

The city is reeling from the recall of two high-profile progressive leaders in November — former Mayor Sheng Thao, who was indicted on bribery and fraud charges earlier this year, and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price.

On Tuesday, Oakland voters will decide if they are still willing to back left-wing voices like Lee, who spent decades in Congress, or go the way of San Francisco and San José and elect a more centrist Democrat in Taylor, a former City Council member.

One of the leaders of the effort to recall Thao, Seneca Scott, was outside the polling place with Jason Byrnes, a fellow recall supporter and vocal Thao critic on social media platform X. They both said they voted for Taylor.

“We can’t let Barbara Lee, with her grifting history, take control of Oakland right now,” Byrnes said.

Housing activist Nicole Deane was excited to vote for Lee.

“She believes housing is a human right,” Deane told KQED.

But others going to the polls were less sure.

“I won’t tell you who I’m going to vote [for] because I don’t know myself,” said Carmelita LaRoche, who has been in Oakland for 55 years. Tony Ford told KQED he’d tried to make the best decision.

The front-running candidates took to the streets over the weekend to make the final case for their candidacy and get people to the polls.

“We had hundreds of people out canvassing and knocking, myself included,” Lee said. “This is a push for every vote to be cast. We’re hoping that people don’t forget and that they haven’t lost hope in our electoral system because your vote is your voice.”

All registered voters in Oakland were sent mail-in ballots, which can be dropped off at one of 16 drop boxes throughout the city or mailed postage-free. Mailed ballots will be counted as long as they are postmarked by Tuesday.

Residents can also cast their votes in person at 1 of 9 voting centers in the city or at the Alameda County Registrar of Voters’ Office. Voting ends at 8 p.m. Tuesday.

According to registrar’s office spokesperson Tim Dupuis, 21% of ballots were returned by the end of Monday.

“We were knocking on doors in neighborhoods, not leaving any stone unturned,” Taylor said. “It’s on track to be a very low turnout as most special elections are, and that’s unfortunate given that democracy is stronger when we have more people participating.”

What’s at stake?

The battleground election comes after what’s been a contentious few months for city leaders.

Oakland residents last year ousted Thao from the mayor’s office in a recall election that shed light on allegations of corruption unearthed by a federal investigation that eventually led to Thao’s indictment.

The recall also underscored Oaklanders’ frustrations with what some residents said was the city’s inadequate response to high crime rates and a catastrophic budget deficit, issues that Oakland’s next mayor will need to address immediately upon entering office.

The front-runners’ proposals

Lee previously told KQED that she would alleviate the city’s financial troubles by securing outside investments through public and private partnerships, leveraging state and federal resources and auditing city spending to look for possible reductions ahead of the next fiscal year.

She also pledged to address public safety concerns by increasing the number of Oakland police officers as well as funding for community organizations that provide mental health services and youth engagement programs.

“My experience in leadership and my fighting for people here in Oakland is an example of how I want to work as mayor to deliver core services, to help steady the ship, to help adjust our budget challenges and to bring different points of view together,” Lee said.

Taylor proposed similar plans for addressing Oakland’s problems. His ideas for reducing the city’s deficit include securing concessions from large companies operating in the city, facilitating outside partnerships and funding streams and assessing the revenue potential of Oakland’s vacant buildings.

With regard to public safety, Taylor previously said he would increase the city’s police force by hundreds of officers and fund violence-prevention programs that show proven results. He said he would also work to improve 911 response times and would reopen Oakland’s closed fire stations.

“We have an urgency at the moment now that we have seen how bad things can get,” Taylor said. “Voters are hungry for a change. Voters are ready for something different.”

What’s on the ballot?

Seven other candidates are also in the running, and whoever is chosen will serve as mayor until the next election in 2026. Voters will also decide on a replacement in District 2 for former Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas, who was elected to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors, and on Measure A, which would increase Oakland’s sales tax by 0.5%.

The mayoral race will be determined by ranked choice. Voters can select up to five candidates and rank them by preference.

If a single candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, they win outright. If no candidate secures a majority, then the last-place candidate is eliminated and voters who selected them as their first choice will have their votes allocated to their second choice.

The process will continue until a majority is reached.

KQED’s Sara Hossaini contributed to this report.