When to Expect Election Results in the Bay Area

• See KQED’s election results as they come in

With every registered voter in the state having received a mail-in ballot this year, Californians participated in early voting at record levels. Going into Election Day, the electorate reached a milestone by returning more than 11.8 million mail-in ballots — more than 50% of all ballots issued — according to the most recent data from the California Secretary of State.

In the Bay Area, participation has been even higher, with seven of the region’s nine counties surpassing the 60% mark of mail-in ballots returned.

What Does Early Voting Mean for Getting Results on Election Night and Beyond?

Election officials are expecting to make a splash with the first tallies announced on Tuesday night.

“We will release a very significant number of votes right after 8 p.m.” said Scott Konopasek, Contra Costa County’s assistant registrar of voters.

In most counties, the initial tallies released on Tuesday night encompass vote-by-mail ballots received before Election Day — with some counties adding in-person votes. The increase in early mail voting could make those early counts more accurately reflect the whole electorate and continue a shift away from early votes representing more conservative voters.

How Long Will the Vote Counting Take?

The explosion of early voting may beef up the initial vote counts released in the Bay Area, but election officials say a few factors will dictate how long the entire vote count will take.

For one, ballots mailed by Election Day can still be counted, as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and received by county elections officials by Nov. 20. (Pro tip: if you are returning your mail ballot close to Election Day, use a county drop box to avoid having your ballot miss the last USPS collection on Nov. 3.)

And California’s Same Day Voter Registration (also known as conditional registration) rules allow voters to show up at a voting location and register on Election Day, while casting a provisional ballot that will be further checked by election workers.

The number of provisional votes cast is usually a good indicator of how many ballots are left to count after Election Day, said John Gardner, Solano County’s assistant registrar of voters.

“That usually tells us how long we’ll need to go,” Gardner said. “Prior to Election Day, it’s really hard to say.”

The deadline to certify the results of the election is Dec. 3. Throughout November, election workers will process late-arriving ballots and work with voters to address any mismatched signatures on ballot envelopes.

“It typically takes us close to the certification deadline,” said Lynda Roberts, Marin County registrar of voters. “I anticipate we’ll be counting the whole month of November.”

The Results Say 100% of Precincts Are Reporting. What Does That Mean? 

In the past, “precincts reporting” was a good measurement of the vote counting process. But California’s shift to vote by mail and changes to many counties’ in-person voting systems have changed that.

With voting spread out over a longer time period, an initial declaration of “100% precincts” reporting could simply mean that at least some votes have been reported from every precinct.

“It just means we have results from all precincts,” said Konopasek, from Contra Costa County. “Our first report should show 100% of precincts reporting because we should have at least some votes from every precinct.”

Many counties don’t include vote-by-mail ballots in their precinct count, so vote counts could be unveiled on Tuesday night with no precincts shown reporting.

“Precincts reporting” can basically be ignored in counties that have abandoned the precinct polling place model entirely in favor of county-wide vote centers. That list already included Napa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties. This election, Alameda and Sonoma counties are also allowing voters to cast a ballot at any voting location in the county, instead of an assigned precinct polling place. (More details on each county’s in-person voting rules and changes this year.)

In these five counties, “precincts reporting” “doesn’t carry the same significance as it does in counties with precinct-based polling places,” said Eric Kurhi, communications officer with Santa Clara County.

If a Result Is Clear, Do Election Officials Declare a Winner? 

Election officials are in the business of vote counting, not calling races.

“The only time I call a race is when I certify an election,” said John Arntz, director of San Francisco’s Department of Elections.

In our coverage of national and state races, KQED relies on the race calls of The Associated Press, which are based on data analyses that include vote counts as well as polling research.

Election officials, on the other hand, are only concerned with processing and counting ballots.

But What if a Candidate Concedes? 

A candidate’s concession or declaration of victory also has no bearing on the steadfast vote-counting being done by election officials.

Arntz brought up the recent example of March’s presidential primary, in which Democratic candidates Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the race shortly before voters went to the polls — but after hundreds of thousands of Californians had already cast ballots for the two contenders.

“As far as the county was concerned, we were still counting their votes,” Arntz said.

What Happens to the Ballots After They Are Counted? 

Just because your ballot has been counted does not mean it’s on the fast track to the paper shredder.

State law requires election officials to hold on to polling place ballots and paper copies, along with vote-by-mail ballots and envelopes, for 22 months after the election.

Those counted ballots are traditionally used in the state-mandated election audit — a manual tally in which election workers hand count all the votes in 1% of precincts.

“The paper ballot is the official record,” said Gardner, in Solano County. “If there’s ever a court case, we go back to that paper record.”

When Does a Recount of Votes Occur?

Unlike 21 other states, California does not have a law triggering automatic recounts in the result of a close race.

Instead, an individual citizen has to request a recount within five days of the election’s certification. And they have to pay for the entire recount process, up front.

John Tuteur, Napa County registrar of voters, said his county charges $500 a day for a recount. But he’s learned that a pre-emptive explanation typically lessens the chance that he’ll spend the holiday season (re)counting votes.

“Any close race, I call the candidates and explain our procedures of a manual tally,” said Tuteur. “After that, they have full confidence in the accuracy of what we’re reporting.”