Newsom Wins California Primary Decisively, Will Face GOP's Brian Dahle in November

Gov. Gavin Newsom has advanced to the November general election for governor in California, according to The Associated Press.

As expected, Gov. Gavin Newsom cruised to a solid first-place finish in the primary election for governor. He will face off against Republican State Sen. Brian Dahle in the fall, making him the prohibitive favorite to win a second four-year term. With 48% of precincts reporting, Newsom is winning 56% of the vote to 16% for Dahle.

In a series of tweets, Gov. Newsom wrote, “Across the country, Republicans are attacking our fundamental rights as Americans. Destroying democracy, stripping a woman of the right to choose, and standing idly by as gun violence claims far too many lives. CA is the antidote — leading with compassion, common-sense and science. Treasuring diversity, defending democracy, and protecting our planet. Here’s to continuing that fight.”

Across the country, Republicans are attacking our fundamental rights as Americans. Destroying democracy, stripping a woman of the right to choose, and standing idly by as gun violence claims far too many lives. (1/2)

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 8, 2022

In third place is former Democrat Michael Shellenberger, now a No Party Preference candidate who could have appealed to moderate and even conservative voters in November.

Under California’s “top two” primary system, the first- and second-place finishers in all statewide races, regardless of party, will face off in November. 

The margin of the governor’s first-place finish Tuesday was in many ways foreshadowed by the ease with which he beat back last year’s effort to recall him midway through his third year in office. Last September, 62% of California voters voted no on the recall, essentially identical to the 62% who voted for Newsom over Republican challenger John Cox in the 2018 gubernatorial election.

Like elected officials at all levels, Newsom is facing headwinds from the pandemic, gas prices and inflation, in addition to voter concerns about quality-of-life issues including homelessness and public safety. But Newsom’s campaign ads remained mostly positive, like one touting his “Courage Through Crisis” where he focused on California’s resilience, with a promise to reflect the state’s values, like diversity, protecting the environment and following science.

Newsom overcame lingering unhappiness with his handling of the pandemic and other problems, notably the Employment Development Department’s epic mishandling of the federally funded Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, where EDD paid some $20 billion in fraudulent unemployment claims and gummed up payments to those in need while investigations took place.

As the incumbent in a solidly Democratic state, Newsom benefited from an overwhelming financial advantage over his rivals. Through May, the Newsom for Governor campaign had $23 million cash on hand, most of it raised last year when Newsom faced a recall. By comparison, Sen. Dahle had just $392,485 in the bank at the end of May, while Shellenberger had a similar cash-on-hand total of $320,114.

Dahle represents a sprawling state senate district that includes all or part of 11 mostly rural counties. He won the endorsement of the state Republican Party and is in sync with many of its positions, including opposition to abortion, saying climate change is not the primary cause of California’s wildfires and blaming voter-approved ballot measures for the recent uptick in property crime. His positions and campaign slogan, “Restoring California,” may appeal to the 24% of voters registered as Republican, but he is unlikely to approach the percentage needed to win in November.