If Joe Biden Drops Out, What Happens Next?

As President Joe Biden faces increasing calls within his own party to step down from the 2024 presidential race, candidates, including Californians Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom, are being raised as possible alternatives for the Democratic nomination.

But what actually happens next if Biden drops out?

The answer: It would set off an open convention process for Democrats not seen since the chaotic 1968 convention that resulted in the nomination of Vice President Hubert Humphrey.

The Democratic Party changed its nominating process after that convention, which was marked by violent crackdowns by police on anti-Vietnam War protestors and conflict among delegates. Starting in 1972, state caucuses and primaries became more important in the nominating process, making it less likely that floor fights like the one in 1968 would play out at the nominating convention.

But party delegates — a mix of party activists and insiders — still have a role in making the nomination official. Here’s what to know about the current rules governing a Democratic National Convention and its nominating process (PDF).

Because Biden won the state primaries, the vast majority of the 4,700 Democratic delegates that will vote on the nomination are “pledged” to him

Biden didn’t face a serious Democratic challenger this year and — as he pointed out in a recent letter to members of Congress — received “over 14 million votes, 87% of the votes cast across the entire nominating process.”

That means that under party rules, those nearly 3,900 delegates are pledged to Biden, and under DNC rules, “shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”

While primary voters choose the nominee, it’s still not official until the delegates vote

Presidential nominations are made official by a roll call vote of delegates. If no one gets a majority of votes, the nominating contest will move to a second ballot, and the other 800 or so delegates can also vote. Balloting continues until a majority of delegates finally selects a nominee.

Even if Biden were to throw his endorsement to Vice President Kamala Harris, other Democrats could also be nominated at the convention

In order to be considered for the nomination, a candidate needs to gather at least 300 signatures from delegates from at least six states. Then, each candidate would be allowed 20 minutes of nominating speeches before delegates begin voting.

It seems likely that Democrats would coalesce behind the vice president if Biden indicates that’s his preference — but nothing would necessarily stop another candidate from trying to whip enough delegates to also vie for the nomination.

The process could be further complicated by ballot access laws in Ohio

The DNC had planned to nominate Biden before the DNC begins on Aug. 19. That’s because state law in Ohio previously required that political parties name their official nominee 90 days before the general election — which this year fell on Aug. 7, almost two weeks before the Democratic Convention. So before Biden’s disastrous debate performance and calls for him to drop out began mounting, the DNC decided they would do the official nomination by virtual roll call in early August.

That doesn’t appear to be necessary anymore — Republicans in Ohio recently passed a bill, which Gov. Mike DeWine signed, that relaxed the deadline. However, Democratic party leaders have still been moving forward with the earlier nomination vote, arguing that outstanding lawsuits over the legislation make the earlier vote necessary. Currently, that vote is scheduled to start as early as Aug. 1, more than two weeks before the convention begins.

Who are the delegates — and can Democratic leaders influence who they vote for in an open convention?

Most delegates are party activists elected by their peers. There are also 700 “superdelegates” (PDF) — members of the House and Senate, Democratic governors, DNC members and all former Democratic presidents, vice presidents, congressional leaders and DNC chairs.

However, since “regular” delegates far outnumber superdelegates, they would pick a nominee if Biden stepped aside. And once an open convention begins, party leaders (including Biden) have no official power to dictate who they vote for.

That means even if the president asks the party to nominate Harris, things could get chaotic at the convention in August.