Progressive SF Supervisors at Risk of Losing Reelection, With 1 Locked in a Tie

Two progressive San Francisco supervisors are in danger of losing their reelection battles after the latest update from city elections officials shows them locked in close races.

In District 1, Thursday afternoon’s update shows incumbent Supervisor Connie Chan and challenger Marjan Philhour in a tie, with both holding at exactly 11,001 votes after multiple rounds of ranked choice vote counting. That closed the slim 35-vote lead that Philhour had at the end of election night.

Chan is one of three progressive incumbents in a close fight for reelection, alongside District 5 Supervisor Dean Preston and District 7’s Myrna Melgar. According to Thursday’s update, Preston is trailing Bilal Mahmood by just over 6.5 percentage points, while Melgar maintains a nearly 4-point lead over Matt Boschetto.

Losses by the incumbents would threaten the progressive wing’s majority on the Board of Supervisors, gained in 2019.

Here’s what to know about two of the most closely watched races.

District 1

The rematch between Chan and Philhour is shaping up to be just as close as their face-off in 2020. In that race, election night updates flipped between the two, and in the end, Chan finished only 125 votes ahead.

District 1 covers the Richmond District, the Sea Cliff neighborhood and stretches as far east as the University of San Francisco campus.

Chan and Philhour share several policy positions. Both oppose Proposition K, which would ban cars on a stretch of the Great Highway and has seen some pushback from west-side residents. In their campaigns, both have advocated for increased staffing of local police.

But the two find themselves on opposite sides of the progressive/moderate rift in San Francisco politics. On housing, Philhour has advocated for building more housing at all levels, while Chan has placed particular emphasis on affordable housing.

When Mayor London Breed announced earlier this year a plan to more aggressively sweep homeless encampments, Chan pointed out that years of encampment sweeps have not yielded notable results, while Philhour applauded the move as part of ensuring public safety.

Philhour’s campaign follows two unsuccessful bids to represent the Richmond District, where she was born. Prior to losing to Chan in 2020, Philhour was bested by former Supervisor Sandra Lee Fewer in 2016.

According to financing data from San Francisco’s Ethics Commission, Philhour’s campaign raised roughly $80,000 more than Chan’s. A political action committee by Grow SF, a moderate group funded in large part by tech executives, also raised roughly $80,000 to try to unseat Chan.

Grow SF also created PACs opposing Preston and Melgar.

District 5

The election for District 5 supervisor has been perhaps one of the most closely watched in San Francisco, aside from the mayor’s race.

As the only democratic socialist currently on the city’s Board of Supervisors, Preston is widely seen as the furthest left member of local government and, in some ways, as one of the faces of San Francisco’s progressive branch.

That profile has also made Preston a prime target for moderate and conservative groups. Moderate tech-led group Grow SF established a political action committee to unseat Preston, which raised nearly $300,000. Elon Musk previously said Preston should be in jail. Every major candidate running against him positioned themselves as a more moderate alternative.

But that same public profile has provided Preston with strong support. According to financing data from San Francisco’s Ethics Commission, Preston has raised $600,000, more than any other supervisor candidate in the city and roughly $100,000 more than the next closest candidate. Preston also received the endorsement of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Mahmood, the main challenger in the race, has also gained notable endorsements, including Mayor London Breed, the city’s Democratic Party, state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco), and California Attorney General Rob Bonta.

The latest update from San Francisco elections officials shows Mahmood’s lead continues, with 9,359 votes compared to Preston’s 8,206.

Throughout his campaign, Mahmood has tried to position himself as a less extreme alternative to Preston. Mahmood has said he supports safe drug consumption sites but also is in favor of more arrests of drug dealers.

He has also criticized the mayor’s increased homeless encampment sweeps. District 5 notably contains the Tenderloin neighborhood, seen as the epicenter of the city’s twin crises: homelessness and drug overdoses.

Mahmood previously ran an unsuccessful campaign for state Assembly but landed in third place in the primary.