‘The Storm Door Is Open’: Bay Area Braces for Days of Rain, but a Clear Christmas

Forecasters expect four back-to-back storms to hit the Bay Area starting Saturday, potentially complicating holiday travel. But there is one ray of sunshine: The National Weather Service suggests Christmas Day could dawn clear skies for most of the region.

“However, the return of the rain isn’t too far off, and the day after Christmas, we will start to see another potentially impactful storm system,” said Dial Hoang, a meteorologist with the weather service’s Bay Area office.

The heaviest rain will be in the North Bay, where two small storms could each dump as much as an inch and a half of rain this weekend. Most of the region will see around a quarter of an inch of rain.

“The storm door is opening,” Hoang said. “Rainfall over the weekend will only increase flooding concerns throughout the North Bay and, to a lesser extent, the rest of the region.”

The weather service warns holiday travelers to take caution through the weekend and next week.

“If you’re traveling for the holiday, be prepared for wet roads and give yourself some extra time to get where you need to go,” said Cynthia Palmer, a meteorologist with the weather service’s Bay Area office.

While the first two storms don’t appear to have much flood potential, the weather service’s outlook suggests the systems will saturate soils, priming the region for potential flooding during the second and third storms next week.

“As soils approach saturation, it is more likely that trees will fall, mud and rock will slide, and creeks and streams will rise,” weather forecasters wrote in the outlook.

The weather service is monitoring several waterways for flooding: the Russian River, the Napa River, the Guadalupe River, the San Lorenzo River and the Carmel River.

“The first two storms are going to be nice little soakers for the area, but the storm that could have more significant rainfall starts Monday,” Palmer said.

The third storm starting Monday could drop 2 1/2 inches of rain, and a fourth storm beginning late Wednesday could drop as much as 3 1/2 inches. Palmer said she isn’t comfortable characterizing next week’s storms as atmospheric rivers but said they will have “more moisture on tap” than the first two.

The agency also expects winds to increase with the passage of each system, with gusts of up to 45 mph at higher elevations. The weather service has also issued a high surf advisory from 6 a.m. Saturday through 4 p.m. Sunday, and a potential high surf warning for large breaking waves on Monday and Tuesday.

As for the rest of the month and into early January, Palmer said there’s a high chance of above-normal precipitation.

“For the better part of the next two weeks, we could potentially be wet, so just be ready,” she said.