Gas Prices Are Rising, And Trump’s Tariff Threats Could Be Playing a Part

As President Trump rolls out new tariffs and threatens others, the cost of gasoline is rising in California and nationwide — and experts said the trade turmoil could be playing a part.

In the past week, the statewide average price of a gallon of gasoline has increased by 18 cents to $4.66, making California the second-most expensive gasoline market in the country after Hawaii.

Doug Johnson, a spokesperson for AAA of Northern California, said there are a variety of factors contributing to rising prices, including state regulations and taxes, but international turmoil and tariff threats have an effect.

“This gasoline is a global scale. The price of oil does impact the price at the pump. So really, anything that happens globally can impact the price at the pump,” Johnson said.

Trump has levied a 10% across-the-board tariff on goods from China, announced a 25% tax on all imported steel and aluminum, and threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico before putting them on hold while talks play out. Canada is a major producer of crude oil — and Trump’s initial tariff plan included a lower tax of 10% for Canadian energy products.

California refineries get most of their crude oil from foreign sources, according to the California Energy Commission, meaning gasoline prices tend to rely on U.S. international relations.

As happened in the summer of 2022, when global oil prices surged due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, gas prices in California are likely to rise along with the rest of the country.

However, one reason why California often pays more at the pump than much of the rest of the U.S. is because of statewide environmental laws that are stricter than the ones on the federal level.

California relies on a reformulated gasoline program that produces cost-effective emission reductions from gasoline vehicles. The program, implemented in the 1990s, ensures that cars burn cleaner gas to reduce emissions. This, combined with California’s state taxes, uniquely situates gas prices to be some of the most expensive in the country.

Johnson elaborated that there are different types of “gasoline blends” that vary seasonally. These “blends” are special mixtures of gasoline that produce less greenhouse gases than traditional gasoline.

“We have the cheapest gasoline in the winter, and then in the spring, when people start hitting the road, it starts getting a little bit more expensive,” Johnson said. “Then, when that summer blend kicks in, it gets to be the most expensive. Then it usually tapers off around fall, and the whole cycle starts over again.”

Johnson noted that it is too early to tell what effects the tariffs will have on the future of gasoline prices.